Solar Cells and Modules Sustain Apparent Pressure as Polysilicon and Wafers Continue to Rise Marginally

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices had carried on with a minor inflation tendency this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotation sitting at roughly RMB 247/kg. Most polysilicon orders for March have been signed, and this week saw the signing of sporadic orders from partial polysilicon businesses, where the higher concluded prices for these sporadic orders are prolonging the inflation trend of polysilicon prices.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon sector indicates that partial businesses are still under overhaul for their individual production lines, while overhaul and logistic issues from overseas polysilicon businesses are also going to affect the provision of polysilicon. Coupling with the worse-than-expected release of expanded capacity, as well as the higher operating rate maintained by the wafer end, and the obstinately high level of demand, polysilicon is expected to carry on with the excess demand status within the short term, by a possible minor increase in prices.

Wafers

Wafer prices had remained largely stable this week, with minor increase in M6 and G12. M6, M10, and G12 were concluded at a respective mainstream price of roughly RMB 5.5/pc, RMB 6.64/pc, and RMB 8.86/pc (increase of 1.26%). Downstream cell businesses have been relatively aggressive in procurement alongside the gradual activation of PV projects from domestic and overseas markets recently, while the market persists in wafer demand on top of centralization of orders. The excess demand status remains apparent for wafers due to insufficient polysilicon provision as well as constrained production and logistics due to the pandemic, and the increment of prices for partial sporadic orders is evident.

Cells

Cell prices had carried on this week with the prices of last week under a predominantly sturdy level. Mono-Si M6, M10, and G12 cells were concluded at a respective mainstream price of approximately RMB 1.1/W, RMB 1.14/W, and RMB 1.15/W this week. Cell orders have become centralized alongside the steady commencement of PV projects from the domestic and overseas markets, and market transactions have dropped compared to the previous period after cell quotations had gone up last week, where the impeded transfer of cost pressure from the cell end has resulted in a reluctant attitude among several module makers. Market acceptance has slightly increased after inflation, and a climbing tendency is seen from the concluded prices of a small segment of orders. In terms of multi-Si cells, there were fewer new concluded orders this week, which may further diminish the scale of the multi-Si market.

Modules

Module prices remained stable this week, where mono-Si 166mm, 182mm, and 210mm modules were concluded at a respective mainstream price of roughly RMB 1.85/W, RMB 1.88/W, and RMB 1.88/W. Module makers remained under the inflation pressure of main and auxiliary materials from the industry chain, as well as the acceptance of end project providers, and continued with a stabilized price level this week. Demand has persisted in both domestic and overseas markets, where India has entered the final delivery period, while Europe is expected to welcome a rapid growth in demand due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In terms of the domestic market, a significant increase in PV project tenders was seen between January and February 2022 at nearly 40GW under a YoY increment of 55.5%. The end market is currently on the fence due to the current higher prices, which resulted in a slight decrement of actual orders during March. Module sector had marginally lowered its operating rate compared to that of February, and may downward adjust module prices if the demand for Q2 fall shorts of the anticipation.

Glass prices remained robust this week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses were concluded at a respective mainstream price of roughly RMB 27/㎡ and RMB 21/㎡. A number of new production lines have been scheduled for ignition in March, and previously ignited production lines that are now nearly at production target will also gradually increase the provision of glass.